Reasoning by Analogy

Reasoning from first principles is the most popular approach to problem-solving right now. It means breaking a problem down into its basic components. Then looking for constraints and solutions based on those.

The most famous proponent, and one of the main reasons for its popularity, is Elon Musk. Given his successes with multiple technology companies over the years, I think the popularity is well deserved.

However, I think reasoning by analogy is just as important. In my experience, a lot of the problems we encounter, whether it be trying to explore new product insights or leading a family, are complex in ways that are hard to reduce to first principles.

In these cases, it’s better to expose yourself to lots of instances; get lots of reps. You can learn by doing or you can study cases from history. This allows you to develop a feel for what can happen, and how a situation might play out.

The bigger the database of experiences you have, the better your intuition will be at navigating a novel instance of a problem.

And if you find that your internal Elon is arguing against reasoning by analogy already, pass the mic to one of history’s best investors to debate him. Charlie Munger is no slouch.

Note: if you’re interested in digging deeper into these approaches, I recommend reading Range by David Epstein and Peak by Anders Ericsson. You can also ask your favorite chatbot about Cognitive Flexibility Theory and Cognitive Transformation Theory. And If you’re feeling ambitious, check out the book Accelerated Expertise.